The official iOS app sat on the US store for about 23 months, then dropped around 11 Sep 2026. A 2026 return is a long shot. The product that comes back, if any, is a licensed US wrapper in 2027. Not this app, not this year.
Checked against Apple's iTunes Lookup at 15:00 UTC on 11 Sep 2026. Lookup reports current availability, not history. The US listing until today is a fact of the storefront drop, on the same Apple ID that first listed on 3 Oct 2024.
com.batonresearch.pump. This is Apple country policy, not a company death.Three Apple events get mixed up. They have different clocks.
A country hide of an already reviewed app is easier to undo than an account kill, and harder to undo than a glitch. Treat "they were on the US store yesterday" as true, and still do not treat "so they pop back next week" as the base case. Apple can hide a storefront in a day. Putting it back means the 3.1.5 question is closed. It was not closed. It was open for 23 months and then they closed the door.
Apple guideline 3.1.5: crypto exchanges need a license in the regions they operate. ICOs are not allowed. Pump's product is that anyone can launch a memecoin. That is the thing the US store was distributing.
There is no US BitLicense, no broker-dealer, no CFTC designated venue, no FCA authorisation. Kalshi got US iOS after it was a designated contract market. Polymarket got US iOS after a licensed US wrapper, years after the 2022 CFTC case. The sequence is license, then list. Not list, then lobby.
The product on the US store was the permissionless memecoin casino. A US return of that product, with no US license, is the 40% "ever" number below. A US return of a licensed or gutted wrapper is the 60% "ever" number, and it is a 2027 project.
Steelman first. Pump is not a two-person app. Parent is Baton. Roughly $1.3B raised. A $5M chief legal officer role was posted in June 2026, in the middle of an SDNY class action. They can hire Apple counsel. They sit in the Solana stack. They have more pull than a random memecoin front end.
Then discount it. App Review is not a political office. It does not take a meeting from a CLO and rewrite 3.1.5. The checkbox is a license in the region. Capital buys the license process. It does not buy an exception. If pull worked, Binance.com would have a US listing. It never did. If pull worked, Polymarket would have skipped the CFTC wrapper and gone straight onto US iOS in 2024. It did not.
The honest read of the pull: it raises the odds they attempt a licensed US wrapper in 2027. It barely moves the odds that Apple puts the current app back on the US store in 2026.
We do not have an Apple letter. Weight the causes by what the live store actually shows.
A license or gambling re-read after 23 months on the US store. Slowest path back. If this is the cause, chance of a 2026 relist is about 8 to 15%.
Self hide for the SDNY class action. Comes back only if counsel says the US storefront is no longer a gift to plaintiffs. If this is the cause, 2026 relist is about 30%.
Failed US publish or metadata. Only this path is fast. If this is the cause, 2026 relist is about 70 to 85%. Do not bet the blend on 10%.
US + UK + India off, Ireland on, Play still up, account still alive: that mix is what Apple and counsel look like, not what a one-country metadata bug looks like. A glitch that also hits Britain and India, and spares Ireland, is a stretch. That is why glitch is 10%, not 40%.
These are dated probabilities for the official app, Apple ID 6717572591, on the United States storefront. Not "some Pump-branded web wrapper." Not TestFlight. Not sideload.
| Horizon | Chance | Read it as |
|---|---|---|
| Two weeks | 12% | Only the glitch world. If it is still gone in October, throw this row out. |
| End of 2026 | 20% | Four in five it is still gone. This is the number that matters for 2026 tape. |
| Mid 2027 | 35% | Still the underdog, even with a CLO and a year of lawyering. |
| End of 2027 | 45% | Coin flip only after a year or more, and likely a different product. |
| End of 2028 | 55% | Bare majority. By then "Pump on iOS" may mean a licensed US app, not this one. |
| Ever, this product, no US license | 40% | Apple can just keep the US storefront off. Forever is allowed. |
| Ever, licensed or gutted US app | 60% | The real path. Kalshi / Polymarket shaped. Not 2026. |
| Horizon | Glitch (10%) | Self hide (25%) | Apple 3.1.5 (65%) | Blend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| End of 2026 | ~70 to 85% | ~30% | ~8 to 15% | 20% |
| First half 2027 | ~90% | ~45% | ~25% | 35% |
| End of 2027 | ~95% | ~60% | ~35% | 45% |
| Ever, same product | ~95% | ~70% | ~25 to 35% | 40% |
If you are sure this was a glitch, the year end number is not 20%. It is high. The live map does not let you be sure. If you are sure Apple is enforcing 3.1.5, the year end number is teens, not 50%.
Use cases that match an unlicensed crypto venue. Do not use Fortnite.
| Name | What happened | Clock |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | CFTC designated first. App Store since 16 Sep 2022. Never banned. | Licensed, then listed. The clean path. |
| Polymarket | CFTC 2022 (~$1.4M, geo block). International iOS 24 Sep 2024 (Blockratize). US iOS select 3 Dec 2025. Waitlist off 12 May 2026. | 3 to 3.5 years. Product changed. Licensed wrapper. |
| Binance | Binance.com was never on the US store. Binance.US was the US app (from Jan 2020). Philippines: Apple yanked Binance / Bitget / OKX / MEXC on 30 Apr 2026. Workaround talk ~3.5 weeks later. EU Play MiCA late Jul 2026, still missing in some EU stores as of 9 Sep 2026. | Country plus license. Not "appeal and return." |
| Coinbase | On iOS since 2013. Never removed as Coinbase. Clones get deleted. | Licensed exchange. Not a comparable. |
| FTX | App died with the company, Nov 2022. | Never returned. Company death, not this case. |
| Damus | China yanked it in two days, Feb 2023. Still gone there. US Lightning / IAP fight, Jun 2023: back only after the banned payment path was ripped out. | Country hide can be permanent. Product change is the US path. |
| Parler | Pulled Jan 2021. Apple yes 19 Apr 2021. Live 17 May 2021. After a product and moderation change. | ~4 months. Not crypto. Not 3.1.5. |
| Fortnite | Yanked Aug 2020 over in-app payments. Back 19 May 2026 after suing Apple, plus DMA. | ~6 years. That is what "forever, then a court" looks like. Wrong fight. |
Pump sits with unlicensed Binance and 2022 Polymarket, not with Kalshi. The people who "came back" either were already licensed, or they changed the product into a licensed venue, or they waited years through a court. None of those is a 2026 Apple undo of a memecoin launchpad.
SDNY class action, January 2025. Securities theory over the memecoin machine. Amended July 2025 with RICO and a "meme gambling" frame. Solana named. Later noise: MEV whistleblower chats (Dec 2025), alleged lawyer intimidation (Jan 2026). Baton posted the CLO role in June 2026 while the case was still described as high stakes. On 1 Sep 2026 Solana Labs was dropped. Pump was not.
The complaint is kitchen sink Howey. Class certification will be hard. A sloppy case is still a live case. Apple does not score a motion to dismiss. Weak claims help only if Pump hid the US storefront itself, and counsel later decides the listing is no longer a gift to plaintiffs. That is the 25% bucket. If Apple is enforcing 3.1.5, the lawsuit is noise. It does not turn 15% into 50%.
The Pump website was already in FCA trouble in December 2024. The UK store is dark. Ireland is not. Do not use a US reinstatement clock for Britain. India is a third hide. Even a clean US return can leave UK and India dark. A "they're back on iOS" headline that means Germany was never the question.
If you are waiting for Pump to reappear in the US App Store in 2026, you are probably going to wait in vain. 20% by 31 December. 80% it is still gone. The current app is a permissionless memecoin launchpad with no US license. Apple's rule for that is not obscure. Capital and a CLO raise the odds of a licensed 2027 wrapper. They do not raise the odds of a 2026 relist of this product in any way that should change how you underwrite it.
Use the German, Canadian, or Japanese store if you need a live listing as a fact. Do not use "they will be back in the US by Christmas."